October 17, 2023

Control of the General Assembly Appears up For Grabs; Voters Top Issues Include the Economy, Abortion, and K-12 Education

Virginia Likely Voters Support Keeping Virginia Abortion Law as is or Less Restrictive and Oppose a 15-Week Abortion Ban

Summary of Key Findings

1. Virginia likely voters are split on whether they intend to support the Democratic or Republican Party's candidate in their district for the General Assembly (42% to 41%).
2. Top of mind issues for likely voters in the upcoming election include the economy and inflation (27%), abortion (17%) and K-12 education (12%). Republicans largely coalesce around the economy (41%), while Democrats' top issue is abortion (25%) and Independents say the economy and inflation (30%), followed by abortion (16%).
3. 55% of Virginia likely voters approve of the job Governor Glen Youngkin is doing compared to 41% approval for President Joe Biden.
4. A majority of Virginia likely voters support either keeping Virginia abortion law as is (49%) or making abortion law less restrictive (23%), while 24% say Virginia should make abortion laws more restrictive.
5. A small majority of Virginians oppose a 15-week abortion ban (54% to 39%) while majorities say abortions should be legal if a pregnancy threatens the life or health of the mother (88%), is the result of rape (82%), in the case of an unviable pregnancy (81%), and if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems (65%).
6. A majority are satisfied with their community K-12 public schools (58%) and trust teachers to make the right decisions for children in K-12 public schools (81%).
7. Book bans are unpopular among Virginia likely voters, while majorities support requiring parental notification if a student wants to go by pronouns that differ from their birth certificate (67%) and would prevent transgender athletes from participating in sports teams that match their gender identity (65%).
8. A majority of Virginia likely voters say they think public schools should teach about the ways racism in America’s history affects the country today with 69% saying it should be taught either a great deal (38%) or a good amount (31%).
9. Virginia likely voters support allowing the retail sale of recreational marijuana (58%) and staying in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (65%), a carbon cap and trade program aimed at reducing carbon pollution.

Analysis

Background: Early voting is well underway across the Commonwealth for the Virginia General Assembly alongside a number of local races. On November 7th, voters will decide which party controls each chamber of the General Assembly with all 140 seats up for grabs. Our survey makes clear that neither party has the upper hand for control of either the House of Delegates or the State Senate, which are currently held by the Republican Party and the Democratic Party respectively, by very slim margins.

The nation is watching as Virginia is one of only a handful of states that holds off year-elections. A strong showing for Republicans could provide a blueprint for the party nationally around how to discuss abortion and how to highlight K-12 education issues successfully. In addition, some suggest that if Republicans have a particularly strong showing in the state’s elections, Governor Youngkin may consider a late-entry to the Republican presidential primary. If Republicans managed to take control of both chambers, this would also grant them a trifecta whereby the same party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. This would ensure that Governor Youngkin could move forward with a conservative agenda without a Democratic veto.

If Democrats perform well this also offers a pathway for them nationally, and would portend well for an emphasis on abortion as a campaign issue that motivates voters. In addition, if Democrats control at least one of the two chambers Virginia Democrats could largely prevent a right-ward shift in policies around guns, abortion, the environment, and other areas.

Voter Enthusiasm, the Generic Ballot: Traditionally off-year elections without a statewide or presidential candidate have shown lower voter turnout among Democrats. Despite this, our survey indicates that Democrats have a marginal enthusiasm advantage compared to Republicans; 70% of Democratic likely voters indicate they have given the upcoming General Assembly elections either a lot of thought (37%) or some thought (33%) compared to 61% of Republicans (30% a lot of thought, 31% some thought), and 65% of Independents.

This survey finds Democrats hold a 1-point advantage (42% to 41%) on the “generic ballot” question, which asks voters if they will cast their state legislative ballots for the Republican or Democratic Party’s candidates. This margin is particularly slim and well within the survey’s margin of error, suggesting that control of the General Assembly is truly up for grabs.

Key Issues: When asked to select the issue that is top of mind in their vote choice, likely voters select the economy and inflation (27%), abortion (17%), and K-12 education (12%) as their top three. Still, partisans diverge significantly on this question with Republicans largely coalescing around the economy and inflation (41%), followed by immigration (20%), and K-12 education (9%). Democrat’s top issues include abortion (25%), followed by gun policy (15%), and a close spread across the economy and inflation (12%), healthcare (12%), and K-12 education (11%). Independent’s top issues include the economy and inflation (30%), abortion (16%), and K-12 education (13%).

There is also a notable gender gap on top issues with women closely split between the economy and inflation (22%) and abortion (21%), while men predominantly state the economy and inflation (32%) followed by K-12 education (13%).

Approval of governor/president: One important backdrop to the legislative elections is the popularity of Governor Youngkin and President Biden, both of whom are likely to be on the minds of voters regardless of whether they are on the ballot. Governor Youngkin has relatively high approval at 55% while President Biden has fairly low approval among Virginia likely voters at 41%.

K-12 education issues: Both Republicans and Democrats in the state have highlighted K-12 education issues in their campaigns, though from different perspectives. We asked a series of questions about K-12 education including general satisfaction, trust in various government and education leaders, and attitudes towards teaching about racism in the classroom, book bans, and transgender student policies.

Satisfaction: Likely voters are more satisfied with their community schools than what they perceive nationally. More specifically, when asked how satisfied they are with the quality of education students receive in K-12 schools in the United States, a majority indicate dissatisfaction (60%). But when asked about satisfaction in their community schools, a majority are satisfied (58%). Democrats are more satisfied than Republicans (68% to 51%) while Independents fall in between (56%).

Trust: When it comes to trust in who will make the right decisions for children in K-12 public schools, teachers come out on top with 81% indicating they trust teachers either somewhat (43%) or a lot (38%). Teachers are followed by local school administrators (67%), local school boards (59%), and state government (55%).

Trust does vary by party; while both Republicans and Democrats place their highest levels of trust in teachers when compared to the state government, school boards and local administrators, there is still a significant gap between the two: 57% of Democrats say they trust teachers a lot compared to only 21% for Republicans.

Democrats are somewhat less trusting of the Virginia state government than Republicans with 53% of Democrats saying they trust the state government either a lot or somewhat compared to 58% of Republicans.

Teaching racism: A majority of likely voters say they think public schools should teach about the ways racism in America’s history affects the country today with 69% saying it should be taught either a great deal (38%) or a good amount (31%). A racial and partisan gap emerges with 64% of Black likely voters saying it should be taught a great deal compared to 32% of whites. 12% of Republicans say it should be taught a great deal compared to 69% of Democrats.

Book bans and transgender student policy: Book bans are particularly unpopular among those surveyed with 84% saying they disagree with the following: if any parent objects to a book in the public-school library, that book should be removed, even if other parents like the book. Relatedly, 73% agree that it is important for public school libraries to have books that represent a variety of perspectives about controversial issues, even if it makes some people uncomfortable.

On policy related to transgender students, large majorities support requiring parental notification if a student wants to go by pronouns that differ from their birth certificate (67%) and preventing transgender athletes from participating in sports teams that match their current gender identity (65%).

A slim majority support preventing transgender students from using bathrooms that correspond with a different gender than their birth sex (53%).

Abortion: We ask a series of questions on abortion that consider whether likely voters would like to see changes to Virginia abortion law, support or opposition to a 15-week abortion ban, and whether abortions should be legal in a variety of circumstances.

Broad Changes to Virginia Abortion Law: A plurality of likely voters indicate that Virginia abortion law should remain as is (49%), with another 23% saying abortion laws should be LESS restrictive and 24% saying they should be MORE restrictive. There are clear partisan and racial divides on this question with 52% of Democrats saying they should remain as is, compared to 37% of Republicans. Another 44% of Democrats say they should become less restrictive while only 4% of Republicans say the same; 56% of Independents say the law should remain as is while 23% say more restrictive and 19% say less restrictive.

Nearly 1-in-4 (39%) of Black voters say the laws should become less restrictive while 38% say they should remain as is. By comparison, 18% of white voters say less restrictive, and 52% indicate they should remain as is.

15-week Ban and Legality of Abortion: A majority of likely voters oppose a 15-week abortion ban (54% oppose/strongly oppose to 39% support/strongly support). 63% of Republicans strongly support/support a ban compared to 20% of Democrats and 39% of Independents. There is also a notable divide by race with only 26% of Black voters showing support/strong support for a ban compared to 44% of whites.

Large majorities say that abortion should be legal in the following circumstances: when a pregnancy threatens the woman’s life or health (88%), if the pregnancy is the result of rape (82%), in the case of a miscarriage or unviable pregnancy (81%). A majority also indicates abortion should be legal if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems (65%).

In addition, 65% of those surveyed personally know someone (such as a close friend, family member, or themselves) who have had an abortion.

Marijuana and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: Two policy issues that are likely to depend on control of the state legislature include legalization of Marijuana retail sale and whether Virginia will remain in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). 

On the first, a majority favor allowing retail sale of recreational marijuana (58%) with Democrats showing stronger support (76%) than Republicans (38%), and Independents (59%). Younger voters (18-44) show higher levels of support than those 45+ (69% to 54%).

A majority (65% to 26%) of Virginia voters also support staying in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a program that enters the Commonwealth into a carbon cap and trade program with other states in the region to reduce carbon pollution. Younger voters also show higher support for remaining in RGGI than voters age 45+ (71% to 62%), while more women prefer to stay in the program than men (70% to 59%).

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 800 interviews of Virginia likely voters, including 228 on landline and 578 on
cell phone, conducted Sept. 28- Oct. 11, 2023. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.0% and 54.0%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.3 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub-samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Six callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at Dynata. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of likely voters in the November 7, 2023 elections.