January 24, 2024

State of the Commonwealth 2024

Spanberger Leads Stoney Among Democrats in an Early Look at the 2025 Governor’s Race

Virginians Support State Constitutional Amendments on Abortion and Felon Re-enfranchisement

Summary of Key Findings

1. A plurality of Virginians say the state is headed in the right direction (43% right, 11% mixed, 37% wrong), but are pessimistic about the direction of the country (20% right, 5% mixed, 71% wrong).
2. 50% of Virginians approve of the job Governor Youngkin is doing compared to 36% approval for President Biden.
3. Looking to the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Congresswoman Spanberger’s favorability rating among Democrats sits at 43% favorable, 4% unfavorable; 53% say they have no opinion/don’t know. For Mayor Stoney opinions are 10% favorable to 8% unfavorable; 82% indicate they have no opinion/don’t know.
4. In the Democratic primary for governor, Rep. Spanberger leads Mayor Stoney 52% to 8% among Democrats, though a large 40% indicate they don’t know who they would support.
5. Virginians overall say the following should be top priorities for the governor and General Assembly: improving K-12 education (74%), reducing crime (62%), and reducing health care costs (59%)
6. Virginia likely voters support allowing the retail sale of recreational marijuana (57%), increasing the state’s minimum wage to $15 by 2026 (68%), and a proposal to spend $448 million towards childcare initiatives in the state (79%).
7. A majority of Virginians support amending the state’s constitution to guarantee abortion rights in the state (62%) and to allow felons that have completed their prison sentence to have their voting rights automatically restored upon release (66%).
8. Half of Virginians support tax cuts for corporations and individuals (50% to 43%; 6% don’t know), though support drops if there were to be a recession in 2024 that would reduce revenues (44% support to 47% oppose), and even further if those cuts would result in funding reductions for government services (29% support to 66% oppose). A strong majority support repealing the Virginia car tax (67%).
9. On gun policy, a majority of Virginians support banning assault-style weapons (56%); large majorities favor establishing criminal penalties for gun owners if their firearms are used by minors in a crime (81%) and requiring gun owners to lock up their firearms and ammunition if there are children in the home (87%). A slim majority support allowing concealed carry in more places (51%), while a majority oppose allowing teachers to carry guns in K-12 schools (56%).

Analysis

The Virginia General Assembly session is well underway in the Commonwealth as lawmakers work to approve a 2-year budget for the state and consider a range of policy proposals. Republican Governor Youngkin is halfway into his 4-year term, while both chambers of the state legislature are held by Democrats after winning control of the House of Delegates and holding the State Senate in the 2023 elections.

Virginia is one of only 10 states with divided government in the US, which necessitates the political parties working together to get things done. According to our survey of Virginia registered voters, there are some areas where voters share common ground, such as safe gun storage, repeal of the car tax, and making K-12 education a top priority. Meanwhile, divisions between Republicans and Democrats are readily apparent on specific policy issues such as banning assault-style weapons, abortion, and raising the minimum wage.

We also ask Democratic registered voters to consider the first two Democratic candidates that have thrown their hat in the ring for the 2025 gubernatorial election, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Mayor Levar Stoney.

State of things: When asked about the direction of the Commonwealth, 43% say Virginia is headed in the right direction, while 37% say the wrong direction. Views about the right/wrong direction of the Commonwealth have remained relatively consistent over the last four years. Governor Youngkin’s job approval remains steady from nearly a year ago at 50%, while 39% indicate they disapprove and 12% say they don’t know.

Approval is largely along partisan lines, with 85% of Republican voters saying they approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance, while 65% of Democrats disapprove; 48% of Independents say they approve.

Direction of the country and presidential approval: Virginia voters remain fairly pessimistic about the direction of the country. Only 20% of Virginia registered voters say the United States is headed in the right direction, compared to 71% percent who say the wrong direction; 5% are mixed and 4% say they don’t know. President Biden’s job approval numbers reflect this overall discontent, with 36% saying they approve of his job performance, compared to 59% who disapprove; 5% say they don’t know. A year ago, Biden’s approval among Virginia voters stood at 38%.

2025 Democratic gubernatorial primary: Although the gubernatorial elections are nearly two years away, two candidates on the Democratic side have entered the race including Congresswoman Spanberger (District 7) and Mayor Stoney of Richmond. Both are expected to be formidable candidates in a highly anticipated race for governor in 2025.

In an early look at the Democratic primary race, we ask Virginia Democrats whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates, or if they don’t know enough about them to have an opinion. Rep. Spanberger receives a 43% favorable rating with 4% indicating unfavorable and another 53% saying they either have no opinion or don’t know. Mayor Stoney is noticeably less well known among Virginia Democratic voters, receiving a rating of 10% favorable to 8% unfavorable, while 82% say they have no opinion or don’t know.

This early in the campaign season these numbers are likely to heavily reflect name recognition of the candidates and signal that Mayor Stoney has a long way to go in getting his name and message out to voters.

When asked which candidate they would vote for if the Democratic primary for governor were held today, Rep. Spanberger leads Mayor Stoney 52% to 8%, with a sizable 40% indicating they don’t know.

Top priorities for the governor and General Assembly: Virginia registered voters were asked to indicate their level of priority for a series of policy issues including infrastructure, affordable housing, environmental protection, reducing crime, addressing gun violence, improving K-12 education, reducing healthcare costs, addressing mental health challenges, strengthening the state’s economy, and cutting taxes. Overall, Virginians say the following should be top priorities: 1. improving K-12 education (74%), 2. reducing crime (62%), and 3. Reducing healthcare costs (59%).

Still, there is large variation based on partisanship with only one (K-12 education) of the aforementioned priorities landing in the top three for Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. Republican’s top 3 priorities are reducing crime (76%), K-12 education (75%), and strengthening the state’s economy (72%). For Democrats they are reducing gun violence (81%), K-12 education (76%), and increasing access to affordable housing (63%). Independent’s top priorities include K-12 education (71%), reducing crime (61%), and strengthening the state’s economy (58%).

Constitutional amendment proposals: The General Assembly has considered a number of possible constitutional amendments while in session including one that would guarantee abortion rights in the state and another that would allow felons who completed their prison sentence to have voting rights automatically restored upon release. Virginians surveyed indicate support for both with 62% saying they support/strongly support amending the constitution to guarantee abortion rights, while 66% support/strongly support felon re-enfranchisement after a completed prison sentence.

The proposed abortion amendment has a sizable partisan, gender, and racial gap. Democrats support/strongly support the amendment at 90% while 67% of Republicans oppose/strongly oppose it. 68% of women indicate support compared to 56% of men, while Black Virginians support the measure 76% compared to 59% for whites. On felon re-enfranchisement, the racial gap is even larger with 60% of whites indicating support compared to 89% of Blacks.

Minimum wage, tax cuts, early childhood spending: On economic policies, a majority of Virginians support raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026 (68% support/strongly support to 30% oppose/strongly oppose). Both Democrats and Independents favor this policy (95% and 64% support/strongly support) compared to 39% of Republicans.

On tax cuts, a mixed picture emerges. The car tax appears quite unpopular with 67% indicating support for its repeal including 85% of Republicans, 66% of Independents, and 56% of Democrats. When asked about cutting taxes for corporations and individuals in Virginia, 50% of Virginians indicate support for the proposal. Still, that amount drops when asked whether they would support those same tax cuts if there were a recession in 2024 that reduces state revenues (44% support to 47% oppose); that number then drops precipitously if cutting taxes meant there would be funding reductions for government services (29% support to 66% oppose).

Governor Youngkin has proposed spending $448 million dollars for childcare initiatives that would increase access to early childhood programs and address childcare educator shortages in Virginia. Virginians support this proposal 79% to 16%. Notably, Democrats show the highest levels of support with 96% saying they support/strongly support it, compared to 61% of Republicans, and 79% of Independents.

Marijuana and gun policy: A majority of Virginians support allowing retail sale of recreational marijuana (57%). While Democrats show strong support (70% to 23%), Republicans are fairly split (46% to 49%), and Independents support the proposal 54% to 38%.

A large majority of Virginians support establishing criminal penalties for gun owners if their firearms are taken by minors and used to commit a crime (81%) and requiring gun owners to lock up their firearms and ammunition if there are children in the home (87%). Both of these proposals receive bipartisan support.

A narrow majority of Virginians supports allowing people to carry concealed guns in more places (51%), while a majority supports banning assault-style weapons (56%), and opposes allowing teachers to carry guns in K-12 schools (56%).

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 1000 interviews of Virginia registered voters, including 221 on landline and 771 on cell phone, conducted Jan. 11 - Jan. 17, 2024. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.7% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 53.7% and 46.3%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.4 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub-samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Six callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at Dynata. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of Virginia.