September 13, 2024

Kiggans Leads Cotter Smasal by 5 points in VA-2; more voters trust Kiggans to handle veterans concerns while more voters trust Cotter Smasal to handle reproductive rights issues such as abortion

Summary of Key Findings

1. Rep. Kiggans’ 5-point lead over Cotter Smasal is bolstered by Independents (+20), men (+25) and white voters (+27); Cotter Smasal does well among women (+12), Black voters (+71), and college educated voters (+9); 13% of likely voters remain undecided in the race.
2. Kiggans has a +5 favorability rating (38% to 33%) and Cotter Smasal’s favorability is +6 (22% to 16%); however 61% either have no opinion or don't know about Cotter Smasal.
3. Among VA-2 likely voters, President Trump and VP Harris are tied 46% to 46% while Senator Kaine enjoys an 11-point lead ahead of Republican Hung Cao.
4. Top of mind issues for likely voters are inflation and the economy (30%), immigration (14%), threats to democracy (12%) and abortion (11%).
5. VA-2 likely voters trust Kiggans more to handle military and veteran’s issues (48% to 32%); they trust Cotter Smasal more to handle reproductive rights (42% to 35%).

Background: Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District encompasses Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Virginia’s eastern shore. The district is one of two competitive congressional races in the state as indicated by top election prognosticators such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Both rate this seat as “lean Republican,” indicating a slightly more favorable context for Republican Incumbent Jen Kiggans. Still the district has swung in past elections with President Biden winning by 2 points in 2020 and Governor Youngkin winning by 11 points in 2021. In 2022, Kiggans won the seat by just over 3 points against incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria in the newly drawn district. Democrats have targeted this district as a potential flip with the Democratic Party’s House Majority SuperPAC recently announcing its intentions to funnel money into the race.

Enthusiasm: VA-2 likely voters are generally enthusiastic about the elections coming up this fall with 83% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (60%) or somewhat enthusiastic (23%). Democratic voters show a higher intensity of enthusiasm with 68% saying they are very enthusiastic compared to 58% of Republicans and 54% of Independents.

Favorability ratings for President, Vice President, and VA-2 candidates: We ask VA-2 likely voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the presidential candidates, their running mates, and the candidates running in Virginia’s Congressional District-2.

Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris has an even favorability rating (47% to 47%), with 6% indicating they have no opinion/don’t know. President Trump is underwater with a -4 favorability rating (45% to 49%); 6% say no opinion/don’t know.

Harris’ running-mate Governor Tim Walz has a +3 favorability rating (38% to 35%), though a sizeable number indicate no opinion/don’t know (28%). Trump’s running mate Senator J.D. Vance has an even favorability rating at 40% with 21% indicating no opinion/don’t know.

Incumbent Congresswoman Jen Kiggans has a +5 favorability rating (38% to 33%) with 29% saying no opinion/don’t know. Cotter Smasal has a +6 favorability rating (22% to 16%); however, she is much less well known with a large proportion of likely voters indicating no opinion/don’t know (61%).

Vote Choice: Among VA-2 likely voters, Trump and Harris are tied at 46%, while incumbent Senator Tim Kaine enjoys an 11-point lead against Republican Hung Cao (43% to 32%).

Kiggans leads Cotter Smasal by 5 points in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District with 13% indicating they are undecided/don’t know. Kiggans’ support is currently driven by Republican voters (93%), Independents (46% to 26%), male voters (54%), white voters (56%), and voters without college degrees (52%).

Cotter Smasal’s support within her own party sits at 90%. Women voters currently favor Cotter Smasal over Kiggans 49% to 37%. She also has large support among Black voters (76%), though another 17% of Black voters indicate they are undecided/don’t know.

Key issues: 2nd Congressional District likely voters are asked which issue is top of mind when they think about voting in the fall elections. Among all issues, 30% say inflation and the economy, 14% immigration, 12% threats to democracy, and 11% say abortion.

Top of mind issues vary by party with a vast majority of Republicans coalescing around inflation and the economy (44%), followed by immigration (27%), and abortion (10%). Top issues among Democrats include threats to democracy (22%), followed by abortion (19%). On their next key issue Democrats are closely split between inflation and the economy (11%), racial inequality (11%), and gun policy (10%). A majority of Independents say inflation and the economy (35%), followed by immigration (15%) and threats to democracy (11%).

In addition, there are substantial differences by race and gender. Among Black voters, racial equality comes out on top (18%), followed by threats to democracy (17%) and inflation and the economy (17%). For white voters, top issues include inflation and the economy (35%), immigration (19%), threats to democracy (12%) and abortion (11%). Women are more likely to say abortion is a top issue compared to men (14% to 8%). Younger voters (aged 18-44) are more likely to name abortion as a top issue compared to older voters (45+), 17% to 8%.

Trust in VA-2 candidates on issues: Both VA-2 candidates have emphasized military and veteran’s issues throughout the campaign given the heavy military presence in the district, and that both candidates are veterans themselves. Cotter Smasal has also emphasized reproductive rights. Given the prominence of these issues, we ask VA-2 likely voters which candidate they trust more to handle military and veteran concerns and reproductive rights.

Overall, VA-2 likely voters show greater trust in Kiggans to handle military issues (48% to 32%), while they trust Cotter Smasal more when it comes to reproductive rights (42% to 35%).

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 792 interviews of registered second congressional district voters who are likely general election voters, including 191 on landline and 601 on cell phone, conducted Sept. 6-10, 2024. A likely general election voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four general elections or is newly registered in the last 12 months and indicates they are enthusiastic and plan to vote in the upcoming November 5 elections. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-4.7% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 45.3% and 54.7%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.8 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by Dynata interviewers. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on city/county, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of the second congressional district’s November 5, 2021 electorate. Parameters for the weights used in this survey come from the 2020 Census and the 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.